Southwest Monsoon Set to Revive by June 14: Heavy Rains Expected Across India
Current Weather Dynamics
At present, the rain-bearing monsoon system is active over several regions, notably Mumbai in the west and Sikkim-Sub Himalayan West Bengal in the east. While these areas have started to witness some rainfall, many others are still waiting for the timely arrival of the monsoon. Meteorologists attribute the forthcoming revitalization of the monsoon to multiple weather systems that are forming over the Bay of Bengal. GP Sharma, the president of Skymet Weather Services, emphasizes that two monsoon systems are emerging, promising to rejuvenate rainfall in areas where the monsoon has already arrived and enabling it to progress further north and west.
– A cyclonic circulation has developed over the west-central Bay of Bengal, indicating potential rain for:
– Coastal Andhra Pradesh
– Rayalaseema
– Karnataka
By this weekend, heavier showers are predicted for Konkan and Goa, which could bring much-needed relief and agricultural benefits in the region.
Cyclonic Circulations Forecasted
In addition to the existing cyclonic activity, another system is expected to form over the north Bay of Bengal on June 14. This new circulation is projected to travel through several states, including:
– Odisha
– Jharkhand
– Chhattisgarh
– Madhya Pradesh
– Maharashtra
Sharma further elaborates that these systems will “reinforce” the monsoon in areas where its presence has weakened following the onset. In addition to this, it is anticipated that the northern limit of the monsoon will also expand, providing much-needed relief from ongoing heatwaves across northern India.
IMD Confirms Favorable Conditions
An IMD official corroborated the news of favorable conditions, noting that the monsoon is likely to advance into both central and eastern India by June 14. Although a confirmation regarding the second Bay of Bengal system is still pending, the IMD official communicated that a cyclonic circulation over north Odisha is augmenting the strength of the monsoon winds.
As early as June 12, the IMD expects to see significant rainfall activity in South Maharashtra, eventually extending to other parts of the state. Areas in Kerala and Karnataka are already noting a strengthening monsoon, with projections indicating light to moderate rainfall in the days ahead.
Heatwave Conditions Persist
Meanwhile, a severe heatwave continues to grip northern and northwestern India. Regions particularly affected include:
– Northern Madhya Pradesh
– West Rajasthan
– Punjab
– Haryana
– Delhi
– Jammu & Kashmir
– Himachal Pradesh
– Southwest Uttar Pradesh
Severe heat conditions have also been noted in parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, and Jammu & Kashmir. However, the IMD forecasts a gradual easing of these high temperatures starting June 13, aligning with the anticipated movement of monsoon systems westward.
The Road Ahead for Monsoon
While the IMD reported no advancement of the monsoon by June 10, signs indicate that movement will begin again by June 14. Primary contributors to further progression of the monsoon will include the westward movement of existing weather systems along the Odisha coast. Another official noted the presence of an east-west trough from northern Tamil Nadu to the south Maharashtra coast, effectively acting as a barometer for monsoon revival.
– This shear zone along latitude 15°N is pivotal, as it is expected to strengthen monsoon winds, facilitating the northward progression of rainfall in the coming days.
As various regions brace for these developments, the revival of the southwest monsoon will not only impact agricultural patterns but also influence water resources crucial for the coming months. The prediction of stronger rainfall activity, especially in regions that have been experiencing heatwaves, brings a glimmer of hope to millions relying on these vital rains.
Through this transitional phase, the collaboration of meteorological observations and timely forecasting will be essential. Staying informed and prepared will be key for farmers and residents as the monsoon shapes the landscape across vast regions of India.
